2007 EARLY SEASON GAME PREDICTIONS & TEAM ANALYSIS

First of all, I'd like to say it's great to start up the college football season. I normally take a summer break, but I didn't take much of one this year due to all the news on Saban and the new recruits he's been picking up. If he keeps up this pace, he might have a top 5 class by the time it's all over.

But in the meantime, we have a week until kickoff, and teams are finally getting settled in with a depth chart, sorting out injuries, and seeing what their team is made of while practicing in the dead heat of summer. Alabama is no exception with the heat swelling into the triple digits. It's actually made this team tougher along with the 4th quarter program Saban installed since he has arrived. Hopefully we can improve upon that 0-19 record Shula left us with in the 4th quarter when trailing in a game. Sad. Let's first take a look at Bama's games and VERY early predictions on who will win each game. Keep in mind that I try to rule out all 'Bama Bias' and keep it real for the Bama Nation. Something just tells me it could be a great year for Alabama football...

	vs Western Carolina - No team is ever a pushover, but on this given Saturday, the Tide will roll. Period. The last time the Catamounts played Bama, they lost 52-0, and that was under Mike Shula's first year as head coach where he had only one month to put a gameplan together. Saban has had all summer & toughened these guys up. The only difference is the talent level on defense is lower - yet the offensive level is higher. A lot of offense is all we'll need, but the defense finally gets to hit someone other than our own team, but they still have a little learning to do to get the new 3-4 scheme downpat. I look for a pumped-up crowd nonetheless. Saban's first game as the Crimson Tide coach is a good one. We'll definitely have a few kinks to iron out before we hit the road next week to Nashville. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	at Vanderbilt - As everyone knows, Bama should never take Vanderbilt lightly. Especially this year. Vandy comes back with a team that has 9 returning offensive starters including QB Chris Nickson and WR Earl Bennett. Believe it or not, this will be a tough game as Vandy will score in double-digits and possibly in the 20's. Our defense needs to hang tough and make sure there is not a breakdown on special teams. Vandy can be tricky at times, but it's a game we should win. I look for Bennett to have over a 100-yd game on the Tide's defense. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs Arkansas - Last year's fiasco returns to Tuscaloosa and Bama has some payback in mind after literally GIVING AWAY that game. Leigh Tiffin botched 3 FGs and a PAT in the game and the Hogs came out with the very lucky win. This year could be redemption for Tiffin as Christensen is injured with a quadricept pull. He'll need to be a lot more focused this year. But for Bama to win this game and not rely on FGs, we just have to stop McFadden and Jones. Stop that RB combo (which gained over 1000 yards each last season), and we'll win the game. The Hogs don't have much of a line and only have 1 WR that has been proven in Monk. Double-coverage on him should shut down the passing game along with a weakened OL. I definitely look for Bama to turn the Tide this year. The Hogs aren't a better team overall, and we still should have beaten them with an inferior coach last year. With Bama being better and with better coaching, I don't see Bama losing this one either. We KNOW who to stop (McF/Jones)... do that, and Bama's 3-0. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs Georgia - For some, Georgia still ranks as one of the best teams in the East. Well, I honestly beg to differ with these sources. Though the Dawgs return a lot on offense, they lose 6-7 guys up front on defense and were shakey in the spring. Though they have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, I don't think there is enough talent matchup-wise against Bama to beat Bama at home. On UGA's campus, this game might be a toss-up, but in Bryant-Denny this year, I think it's a 3 to 6-point win for the Tide. This game will be close though, and could honestly go either way given what we know (or actually DON'T KNOW) about our own team. I have to go with the home team on this one whoever it may be... and it's.... Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	at Florida State (Tallahassee) - Bama hits the road for this 'neutral' site game with FSU. There will be tons of Bamafans there, but it will still be more of an FSU crowd for sure. FSU has picked up offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, so it will be a reunion of sorts for Saban and Fisher. FSU has struggled in the last few years, so it will be interesting to see if QB Weatherford can get FSU back over the hump. The FSU game automatically gives you that 'loss' feeling especially being played in Florida because of how Bowden-coached teams have played in the past. This game, like Georgia, could really go either way and again, I have to go with the 'home' team on this one. This game could really test Alabama's adversity bigtime. But on the road, I see Bama coming up just short unfortunately. Bamadog's Early Pick: FSU
	vs Houston (HC) - Houston comes into Tuscaloosa for Homecoming, and this is one game I'll definitely be at. Bama hasn't lost a HC game in a long time (since DuBose) and I don't forsee a loss here. Bama has gotten their feet wet through some tough games and are finally making themselves an identity and mastering the offensive and defesive schemes. Houston is an ok team, but they shouldn't have a chance here. Big winner here... Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	at Ole Miss - Bama hits the road again to Oxford for an Ole Miss team that is really trying to find themselves. Though Ole Miss plays Bama tough at times, Eli Manning is not there, and neither is LB Willis. Now Ole Miss's RB is strong and fast, so like Arkansas, if we shut him down (Green-Ellis), we get the win. If Shula can beat Ole Miss in 2006, this far into 2007, I see good things for Saban and the Tide for this one. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs Tennessee - At this point, I forsee Bama to possibly be 6-1 or 5-2 overall. Going into the UT game, this one is huge. We get them at home and the crowd will be deafening once again. UT will be beatable. Their best player is Ainge, but he won't have anyone to throw to. UT lost their top 3 WRs and 2 of their best offensive linemen. But with Foster & Coker at RB, they still have somewhat of a good backfield. On defense, UT lost 3 of its secondary. With Bama making a push for a lot of yards this year with Applewhite's offense, UT could actually get blown out though some have picked the Vols to win the East. They usually have a good team especially with Cutcliffe back at offensive coordinator, but I see Bama actually winning this game and getting back on track with another streak against the Vols. Last time UT visited Bama, Harper got the hit of the game to create the touchback, then Christensen kicked the game-winner. Bama's defense should be more improved by this point and should come out with another home win against one of the best teams in the East. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs L.S.U. - First of all, this game will be HUGE. I'm just glad it's in T-town and not Baton Rouge. Either way, LSU gets it done with new QB Matt Flynn. LSU just has too much talent to lose this game. DE Dorsey is a beast and we can only hope to contain him. Last year, he camped out in the Alabama backfield. The biggest thing going for Bama is that LSU will also have a new offensive coordinator in Gary Crowton. Jimbo Fisher left for FSU. Now LSU has a lot of young talent, especially at WR and RB, but Doucet will be Flynn's go-to guy at WR. On defense, that's where the difference will be though... as LSU returns 8 starters on a defense that terrified everybody, especially Alabama. Bama has a chance to win of course, but if so, it will be a close one. LSU with so much team speed on defense will crimp Bama's offense enough to cough up our first SEC loss. Anything can happen between now and then - maybe when we actually get to SEE Bama play under Saban, this might change, but right now, it's LSU's game to lose. Bamadog's Early Pick: L.S.U.
	at Mississippi State - First of all, Croom sucks as a head coach, which should tell you something about Mike Shula last year. Croom's teams are making Jackie Sherrill look like Coach Bryant. After this year Croom will be gone if he doesn't beat Bama and Ole Miss. Bama strolls into Starkville and will still have a chip on their shoulder after last year. MSU still lacks experience on both sides of the ball, and their best player is RB Dixon. With 4 returning starters on the OL, they have a shot to do something, but not much. No WR has stepped up, and the defense still has too many holes to be effective. Bama takes no prisoners this week. Enjoy your win last year in Tuscaloosa, because it won't happen this year in Starkville. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	vs Louisiana-Monroe - Seriously? By this time, Alabama knows what they can do.... and they know they should win this game. 'Nuff said. Bamadog's Early Pick: BAMA
	at Auburn - Forget L.S.U. THIS is the GAME OF THE YEAR for Alabama. Sure WE are LSU's game of the year, but Auburn is ours. After losing 5 straight times to the tigers, something HAS to give. Since we're not playing in T-town, Bama has a chance. We still haven't beaten them at home, so beating them at their place should give us a shot. AU returns a TON of starting talent on defense. AU's problem will be their offense as they really don't have anyone back except QB Cox. That includes their special teams where everyone is being replaced after losing everyone to graduation and the NFL. Being in Auburn, this game will be extremely tough. Basically it will come down to AU's defense and Bama's offense & special teams. The other 2 will offset. AU's defense should hold Bama in check, and it will go back and forth the entire game. AU won't give up. THE difference here is that if we can get close enough in, we'll have a better chance at getting FG's than Auburn. Their guys are just unproven at this point - though 12 games into the season could prove differently. It's a tough call, and this far into the schedule, things could very well change due to injuries and actually seeing what Applewhite does with this offense. Right now, the unfortunate edge goes to the home team, but come GAMEDAY, I could actually change this so the Good Guys win... we shall see. Bamadog's Early Pick: AUBURN

EAST Tennessee S. Carolina Florida Georgia Kentucky Vanderbilt	WEST LSU Auburn Alabama Arkansas Ole Miss Miss St.
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP - L.S.U. -

Yeah, Yeah, I know it sound all cliche' to pick LSU to win it all, but if you look at every team in the conference, they have the best chance. It doesn't mean they will go undefeated though, but will win the West, then win the SEC Championship. In the East though, yes, I have shaken things up. Whoever wins the Eastern division, you can almost count on that team losing 2 games. The East is too screwed up and balanced for anyone to go undefeated or even one loss. Every team will improve from last year which means everyone is dangerous. Now, Kentucky and Vandy have been replaced by Ole Miss and Miss. St.

Florida has had some serious talent come to Gainesville, but it's all young talent. UF's WR's will be their biggest weapon of choice if Tebow can get them the ball. Honestly, I don't know if he'll be able to do that with his awkward throwing style/motion. Remember, UF won the National Championship last year - but that doesn't mean squat for THIS year's team's talent level. UF has ONE (I repeat ONE) starter back on defense. In the SEC, you do NOT win games without a good defense. And with an unproven QB in Tebow not just playing fullback QB, things could get ugly for UF this year. And if Tebow gets hurt, they may not win another game after that as there is no QB with any experience below him. Florida won't be the 2006 version, that's for sure.

South Carolina and Spurrier will actually have a good chance to win the conference in my opinion. They have guys that fly to the ball, and he has really turned his teams around since he has started there as head coach. They are my dark horse for the East this year, so keep an eye out for the gamecocks.

In the West, Auburn and Alabama are 2 and 3, but should have identical records in the SEC with AU getting the 2nd spot due to the head-to-head over Bama. The Hogs could very well be in the mix as well with 2 losses, but it will come down to Bama/Auburn to figure the 2nd place team. LSU will play UT in the Championship Game and UT will get beat hands down. Maybe not a blowout, but it won't be much of a game. UT still has 2 SEC losses and isn't that good. The 2nd/3rd place West Team could easily be as good or better than the 1st place East team this year. There's just too much parity in the East this year. I look for more upsets, but hopefully Georgia can turn things around and not lost to UK and Vandy in one season. Wow - now that's embarrassing.

So here we are a week prior to the kickoff of the 2007 NCAA Football season. Everything is up in the air. We have not seen ANYTHING from Saban other than stats of the 1st team offense vs the 2nd team defense & the 2nd team offense vs 1st-team D. From what I can tell, Grant is the real deal. And we already know everything else about the players on offense. Bama WILL score this year in the red zone. Applewhite is too good of an offensive mind to just let drives stall inside the 20. With Darby gone, I actually think our offense will be better though the loss of McClain will be felt. But Jimmy Johns will pick up the slack. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and loves to hit people. I like what we have on offense for sure.

On defense, Bama is trying to establish some depth. Only time will tell if these guys will pick up the new 3-4 scheme or not, and how effective it will be as the season goes along. We could surprise everyone and go 11-1 or we could end up 8-4. It's just too hard to know at this point. If the fans don't know, I guess that's a bad thing for predictions, but a good thing for opposing teams. I can dig it - but I'm ready to see what the Tide can do.

Bring on Saturday - I'm ready to see the Tide Roll!!

Your Host.....
The Bamadog